The UDX Equation

I just submitted my February article where I talk a little bit about the probabilities of double qualifiers in the pursuit of a UDX. It seems a little counter-intuitive, but if qualifying in the two classes is really unrelated, the odds against double Q’s increase dramatically as the pass rates in those classes decline.

I wonder if anyone will make the argument that the two classes are more closely related. The problem with addressing that argument is that no one has enough info to even guess at how much of correlation there might be. Let us all thank the AKC for not reporting when someone flunks, only when they qualify…

Still, if a lot of people report beating the average, there might be something to it. It only stands to reason that there are occasions where a team is “on” and more likely to qualify in both and other occasions when they are not and so are likely to flunk both.

I guess I almost hope I’m wrong - it’s really sort of depressing if the probabilities are right.